Vinitaly 2022: pre-pandemic numbers, between light and shadow

Vinitaly 2022 marks the restart of major wine & food trade fairs, with pre-pandemic numbers: 4,400 exhibiting companies, 19 countries represented, 700 top buyers from 50 accredited nations. After the experience of the Vinitaly Special Edition of last year, the most important Italian wine event returns in a complex context.

Despite the fair's numbers having almost returned to 2019 levels, with a record export of Italian wine of more than 7 billion euros, we are witnessing significant challenges tied to the international situation. We are talking about rising raw material costs, scarcity of supply of materials such as paper and bottles, the crisis triggered by the war between Russia and Ukraine, with the consequent sharp increase in energy and transport costs. And with a pandemic still not entirely behind us in the background. A kind of "perfect storm" for a recovering Italy. But there is more, as we shall see.

The central issue is undoubtedly the rise in costs: cardboard doubled, glass +25%, corks +40%, road transport +25%, maritime freight +400% (compared to 2020). But there is also the issue of raw material availability: many paper mills are shutting down or slowing production; for glass the situation is nothing short of dramatic; for some highly energy-intensive sectors, such as distilleries, the continuous rise in energy prices is having disastrous effects.

Returning to the encouraging numbers, last year the equivalent of 600 million bottles of Italian wine headed to the USA and Canada, for a counter-value of 2.7 billion dollars and a 17% growth over 2020. In the same year, the two North American countries recorded wine imports worth more than 9.3 billion dollars, nearly 1/4 of the global value of wine imports.

Is everything, then, that glitters gold in the most coveted market for Italian producers? Not exactly, and not only because of rising prices and raw material scarcity or the winds of war. There is also a demographic issue that risks profoundly changing over time the consumption landscape in the world's number one market, the United States. Over the past three years, the USA has lost 12 million regular wine consumers (dropping from 84 to 72 million in 2021), in a current picture where almost half of wine lovers are concentrated in the older age bracket. Those abandoning the wine glass are younger people (between 21 and 41 years old), responsible for a hemorrhage of 11 million consumers. Today this segment of the population – roughly half of all consumers – accounts for only 28% of the market.

Furthermore, inflation is also galloping in the United States (+7.9%, at its highest level in 40 years) and Italian wine risks halting its run in the world's top market. This confluence of factors will cause significant damage to Italian wine exports overseas.

Encouraging numbers, therefore, within an international context that is nonetheless very critical, with severe and worrying trends. And that is not all.

Walking around the fair I had the opportunity to stop by the stands of Terredora, Casale del Giglio, Dei and many others. But some of the historic producers were not present, while others are doubtful about participating next year. Two years of pandemic certainly forced them to make significant cost cuts, such as the costs involved in attending the fair. But two years of absence have also made many wine producers aware that it is possible to do business abroad even without the fair.

Not to mention the stance taken by the president of the Consorzio di tutela Barolo, Barbaresco, Alba, Langhe e Dogliani, Matteo Ascheri, according to whom "the time has come for producers to say goodbye to Vinitaly because" – in his words – "today there are more effective and economical tools to make their wines known".

In short, we are certainly witnessing a strong resurgence of Italian wine, with Vinitaly as the emblem of our entire wine movement: between light and shadow, with dark clouds on the horizon and new trends to interpret.